Valuation Scenarios
DCF modeling tool - run bull/base/bear scenarios om intrinsic value te calculeren.
Overzicht
Met Valuation Scenarios kun je discounted cash flow models bouwen:
- DCF Calculator - Build full 10-year cash flow projections
- Multiple Scenarios - Bull/Base/Bear case modeling
- WACC Calculator - Weighted average cost of capital
- Terminal Value - Perpetuity growth en exit multiple methods
- Sensitivity Analysis - Test verschillende assumptions
- Fair Value Range - Min/max pricing targets
DCF Basics
Free Cash Flow (FCF)
Operating cash flow - CapEx = Free Cash Flow. Dit is cash die company kan gebruiken voor dividends, buybacks, debt paydown.
Discount Rate (WACC)
Cost of equity + cost of debt weighted by capital structure. Higher risk = higher WACC = lower valuation.
Terminal Value
Value beyond forecast period - usually 80% of total value. Use perpetuity growth (2-3%) of exit multiple (EV/EBITDA).
Present Value
Discount all future cash flows back to today @ WACC rate. Sum = Enterprise Value → subtract net debt = Equity Value.
Scenario Modeling
- Bull Case - Revenue growth 25%, margin expansion, lower WACC (optimistic)
- Base Case - Conservative revenue 15%, stable margins, market WACC
- Bear Case - Slow growth 5%, margin compression, higher WACC (risk)
- Probability Weighting - Bull 25%, Base 50%, Bear 25% → Expected value
💡 Pro Tip: Terminal value dominates DCF - spend meeste tijd op long-term growth assumptions!
WACC Calculation
- Cost of Equity - Risk-free rate + Beta × Market risk premium (CAPM)
- Cost of Debt - Interest rate × (1 - Tax rate) - tax shield benefit
- Capital Structure - Weight equity vs. debt in total capital
- Typical WACC - Tech 8-10%, Utilities 5-6%, Retail 9-11%
Sensitivity Analysis
- Growth Rate Sensitivity - Test 10%, 15%, 20% terminal growth
- WACC Sensitivity - Vary discount rate ±200 bps
- Margin Sensitivity - Operating leverage scenarios
- Multiple Sensitivity - Exit EV/EBITDA range 8x-15x
Common Mistakes
- Overly Optimistic Growth - 30%+ perpetuity = unrealistic
- Ignoring CapEx - Use FCF not operating cash flow
- Wrong Discount Rate - WACC moet match business risk
- Terminal Value Dominance - If >90% of value, model is garbage
Use Cases
- Buy/Sell Decisions - Is stock trading above/below fair value?
- Position Sizing - Bigger position if high margin of safety
- M&A Analysis - Acquisition target valuation
- Compare Alternatives - Which stock cheapest on DCF basis?