Merger arbitrage
Strategie om deal-spread te verzilveren.
Merger arbitrage is een hedge fund strategie. Speel op de SPREAD tussen huidige target-price en de aankondigde deal-price.
Het mechanisme:
- Deal announced: 'Acquirer biedt $100 per share voor Target'
- Target koers springt van $70 naar $95 (niet de hele $100 — uncertainty over deal closure)
- Spread: $5 ($100 deal − $95 current)
- Bij close (6-12 maanden later): you collect $5 → ~5-7% annualized
Risico's:
- Deal breakage: regulators block, financing falls through → target stock crashes back to $70
- Long process: deals can take 12-24 months
- Adjustment: deal terms can wijzigen mid-stream
Famous failed deals:
- Allergan-Pfizer (2016): blocked by tax inversion rules. Allergan crashed.
- AT&T-T-Mobile (2011): antitrust blocked. T-Mobile rallied actually (more independent value).
Risk-adjusted returns:
Merger arb has historically been low-volatility 5-10% returns. Good for hedge funds, not too exciting for retail.
Voor retail:
Niet gemakkelijk. Vereist deep deal-analysis. Most retail underperform via merger arb.
Alternatief: M&A-focused ETFs (MRGR — IndexIQ Merger Arbitrage ETF).